AI capability could get 32 times cheaper in 5 years, says one analyst
jefrankle · x · 2026-07-25
In reply to Nat Lambert, the post argues that the best Moore’s-law analogue for AI is not scaling laws, but intelligence efficiency: how much cheaper a given capability becomes each year as models help train better models.
- If training/inference efficiency improves by 2x per year, the same performance would cost 32x less in 5 years and 1,000x less in 10 years.
- The implication is that intelligence becomes a commodity much faster than many people assume.
- The linked image adds the same theme: if capability costs fall by 4x per year, today’s expensive models become dramatically cheaper over time.
Related event: AI Intelligence Efficiency Predicted to Follow Moore's Law(2 posts)→
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