APSR study says rebel organization predicts which authoritarian regimes endure
RobbWiller · x · 2026-07-24
APSR paper argues rebel structure shapes how authoritarian regimes endure or collapse
In American Political Science Review, Killian Clarke, Anne Meng, and Jack Paine argue that the structure of the founding rebellion helps explain why some authoritarian regimes last while others fall quickly.
- Regimes born from a unified rebellion tend to become more durable autocracies because members can share power within one armed organization.
- Regimes born from fractured rebellions often fail sooner because rival armed groups struggle to share power across organizations, triggering defections and renewed conflict.
- The authors test the argument with a new dataset covering every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900 to 2020.
- They say alternative explanations such as rebellion characteristics, ideology, or country-level factors do not explain the divergence as well.
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