Nature Study: GPT-4 Predicts Social Science Experiment Outcomes with High Accuracy
RobbWiller · x · 2026-07-24
A new study published in Nature reveals that Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 can highly accurately predict the results of social science experiments.
Across 70 preregistered studies, there is a strong correspondence (r=0.85) between LLM-predicted and observed effects. Notably, for unpublished studies outside its training data, the LLM still performs similarly to human forecasters. Furthermore, combining LLM predictions with human predictions increases overall accuracy.
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