Open-weight models may keep winning usage even if they lag the frontier
joshua_saxe · x · 2026-07-23
The post argues that usage matters more than revenue at this stage of the AI industry, and that open-weight models are likely to keep winning on adoption.
Its main reasons are: second movers have incentives to go open weights, sovereign-AI countries want models they can customize without depending on American providers, and open-weight models already appear to be on a stronger usage trajectory even if they lag the frontier.
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