Open-weight models may keep winning usage even if they lag the frontier
joshua_saxe · x · 2026-07-23
The post argues that usage matters more than revenue at this stage of the AI industry, and that open-weight models are likely to keep winning on adoption.
Its main reasons are: second movers have incentives to go open weights, sovereign-AI countries want models they can customize without depending on American providers, and open-weight models already appear to be on a stronger usage trajectory even if they lag the frontier.
Related event: Open-Weight Models Set to Dominate Global AI Usage(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Understanding the AI consciousness debate: which theory of mind is behind it — msharmas · 2026-10-27
- Functionalism: if consciousness is just what the brain computes, silicon can run it too — msharmas · 2026-10-27
- iPhone case with 85,000 reviews in days: everything fake in the age of abundance — tekbog · 2026-10-27
- Whether AI can be conscious depends on your definition: five frameworks for thinking about it — msharmas · 2026-10-27
- dunkhippo33 Shares How He Thinks About Raising Kids in the AI Era — kimmonismus · 2026-10-27
- EE-trained AI educator: systems-bottleneck thinking still matters in the AI era — dunkhippo33 · 2026-10-27