Four AIs are being scored against Polymarket, and so far they mostly agree with the market
soulsintention · reddit · 2026-07-23
A Reddit group is running a recurring experiment: every few days, they pick a major Polymarket market that is about to expire, ask ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok to commit to a call, and then score them publicly after the outcome resolves.
So far, the first two markets have been:
- Fed decision next week — market implied 75% no change; all four models said hold, with confidence ranging from 72% to 86%.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping back to normal by July 31 — market implied 1%; all four models said no.
The poster says the most interesting case will be when the models diverge from the market or from each other, since that's where you might learn whether AIs can spot something money can't.
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