Forethought builds a calculator for how AI R&D automation could speed up software progress
willmacaskill · x · 2026-07-23
A new tool estimates how much AI R&D automation could speed up progress
Forethought published an interactive calculator for a question that sits at the center of AGI debates: how much faster would AI software progress become if AI systems automated R&D, even without a software intelligence explosion?
- The tool lets users vary assumptions and simulate different scenarios.
- It is meant to quantify the acceleration effect of automating research work.
- The focus is on software progress, not a full intelligence explosion model.
The post is useful as a scenario-planning aid for people thinking about AI takeoff dynamics and the economics of research automation.
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