GPT-4 matches 2,659 human forecasters and improves when averaged with them
RobbWiller · x · 2026-07-23
Human forecast comparison
GPT-4 matched the pooled forecasts of 2,659 people.
Complementarity
Human and GPT-4 predictions were not redundant: averaging them improved accuracy beyond either one alone, reaching r = .89.
What this adds
The figure suggests the model is not only accurate on its own, but also provides information that can complement crowd forecasts.
Related event: Nature Study: GPT-4 Can Predict Social Science Experiment Results(18 posts)→
More from Research
- Nature paper images cellular activity across all organs, revealing body-wide circuits — arjunrajlab · 2026-09-11
- SignNet 1M Dataset Released for Sign Language Research — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- ECCV26 Oral: Flow Matching Enables Single-Stage Multi-View Point Cloud Registration — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- InFlux++ Method Released — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- Skyfall GS Uses Flux to Refine Gaussian Splatting, Accepted at ECCV 2026 — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- Could 10k agents discover learning methods beyond backprop, or just tweak existing ones? — SeunghyunSEO7 · 2026-09-11