LLM-only pilots cost under $1 and rival ~230-person human pilots
RobbWiller · x · 2026-07-23
The post summarizes two practical uses of the forecasting method.
- After recalibration, an LLM-only pilot costing under $1 for most models had prediction error comparable to a 230-person human pilot costing about $736.
- Combining LLM forecasts + 100 people matched the accuracy of a humans-only pilot with 385 participants.
- Across 11 megastudies, interventions chosen with expert + LLM judgments produced effects that were 6% larger on average than expert-only selection.
Related event: Nature Study: GPT-4 Can Predict Social Science Experiment Results(18 posts)→
More from Research
- Nature paper images cellular activity across all organs, revealing body-wide circuits — arjunrajlab · 2026-09-11
- SignNet 1M Dataset Released for Sign Language Research — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- ECCV26 Oral: Flow Matching Enables Single-Stage Multi-View Point Cloud Registration — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- InFlux++ Method Released — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- Skyfall GS Uses Flux to Refine Gaussian Splatting, Accepted at ECCV 2026 — ducha_aiki · 2026-09-11
- Could 10k agents discover learning methods beyond backprop, or just tweak existing ones? — SeunghyunSEO7 · 2026-09-11