OpenAI may end up with a Microsoft-style JV, not a clean valuation
MxMnr · x · 2026-07-23
A bearish read on OpenAI pricing points to a Microsoft-shaped structure
This post argues that the market’s OpenAI story is becoming too stretched to support a clean valuation, while the company remains too important to simply write down. The suggested outcome is not a single obvious price, but a more structured arrangement with Microsoft: a joint-venture-like setup, preferential terms, and a repricing that no one has to explicitly book.
The core thesis is that as the check gets larger, only a few parties can fund it, and those parties will set the terms. The post frames the next step as a structural financial compromise rather than a straightforward market price.
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