New paper uses stock prices to estimate AI’s software-engineering productivity gains
lihua_lei_stat · x · 2026-07-21
A discussion of a paper on the macroeconomic effects of AI and the software-engineering channel.
- The paper asks how AI changes software engineering productivity and, ultimately, GDP.
- Its identification strategy uses stock prices: firms more dependent on software engineers should benefit more from AI advances.
- The authors look for cross-sectional differences in stock-return sensitivity to an AI index as a proxy for expected productivity gains.
- The post frames the work as a way to infer how financial markets are pricing AI-driven productivity improvements.
Related event: NBER Paper Estimates AI's Macroeconomic Impact via Stock Prices(2 posts)→
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