Cheap open-weight Chinese models could collapse token pricing, but users may still win
max_paperclips · x · 2026-07-21
Open-source Chinese models may undercut token economics, but the internet could still benefit
The thread argues that the AI market is splitting into two economic paths:
- Closed American models priced at roughly $26–56 per 1M tokens.
- Open-weight Chinese models at around $0.50–1 per 1M tokens.
The core claim is that if U.S. companies are forced to buy inference at 50–100x higher prices than foreign competitors, American firms may eventually become financially constrained and the stock market could suffer. The reply pushes back, saying the U.S. government does not owe OpenAI or Anthropic a business model.
That counterargument says:
- Cheaper AI means hyperdeflation in digital cognition.
- Enterprises and consumers would still adopt AI even if token merchants struggle.
- Hyperscalers, internet companies, and end users could all benefit.
- The real risk is only for the current business model of large closed labs, unless they adapt to new revenue streams.
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