MIRI’s Plan S is said to have a 66% win probability, far above Plan A’s 18%
eli_lifland · x · 2026-07-21
A thread discusses why some MIRI people prefer **Plan S** over **Plan A** for long-term AI governance and alignment strategy. - The author says they disagree with parts of the thread but found the reasoning valuable. - The most notable detail is the probability gap: the MIRI team reportedly rates Plan S at **66% p(win)** versus **18%** for Plan A. - The quoted MIRI post says they find AI 2040’s analysis solid, prefer Plan A to Plan D, but still favor an instance of Plan S. - This is less about a concrete policy proposal and more about which strategic framing they think gives the best odds over the long run.
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