A new AI forecast puts recursive self-improvement at 50–60% odds
alex_verem · x · 2026-07-21
The post argues that Mark's two-outcome framing is the clearest way to think about where AI is headed.
- Scenario 1: recursive self-improvement, assigned 50–60% odds.
- Scenario 2: only incremental AI progress, assigned 40–50% odds.
- The point is not a product prediction, but a strategic framing for anyone planning around AI budgets, capability growth, and the possibility that models increasingly improve the research process itself.
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