AI Diffusion Analogy: We Are in 1806
sebkrier · x · 2026-07-20
Using historical analogies, Jason Crawford points out that new technologies take time to spread. Even 90 years after the invention of the steam engine, practical steamboats and trains were not yet ubiquitous. If ChatGPT represents the AI equivalent of Watt's steam engine, we are now roughly in 1806, meaning AI's steamboats and trains are just about to arrive. This helps address the common question of why models are so powerful, yet the world seems largely unchanged.
More from AGI Musings
- AI Safety Researcher Warns Current Crisis Could Lead to Loss of Control, Proposes 3 Fixes — LuizaJarovsky · 2026-10-26
- Ben Thompson's 'The End of the Internet': when creation goes free, winners go small — tushaarmehtaa · 2026-10-26
- Revolut CEO: China's 9/9/6 work culture makes it unbeatable — only 2 of 140 startups survived — davidsenra · 2026-10-26
- AI Is Redistributing Technical Power Inside Companies, Not Just Creating New Roles — mdancho84 · 2026-10-26
- Two New Papers Quantify AI's Impact on India's Labour Market With PLFS Data — ravi_iitm · 2026-10-26
- AI thinking is to human thought what planes are to bird flight — js_craft_hq · 2026-10-26