AI Diffusion Analogy: We Are in 1806
sebkrier · x · 2026-07-20
Using historical analogies, Jason Crawford points out that new technologies take time to spread. Even 90 years after the invention of the steam engine, practical steamboats and trains were not yet ubiquitous. If ChatGPT represents the AI equivalent of Watt's steam engine, we are now roughly in 1806, meaning AI's steamboats and trains are just about to arrive. This helps address the common question of why models are so powerful, yet the world seems largely unchanged.
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