AI Commoditizes Knowledge Work: The US-China Industrial Contest
max_paperclips · x · 2026-07-18
- Core Insight: AI is commoditizing "knowledge work (services)," shifting value capture to manufacturing as a complementary good. As the US dominates services and China leads manufacturing, AI driving service costs toward zero will naturally redirect capital flows to manufacturing.
- Counterarguments & Nuance: Critics challenge the "complementary goods" theory's application to AI, noting that open-source models or providers (like Kimi) struggle to capture unique value from inference services alone.
- Security & Competition: The discussion also touches on AI's role as a state accelerator in cyber warfare, suggesting that normal geopolitical competition will drive nations to restrict rivals' access to this technology.
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