Frontier Training Costs and China's Local Deployment

Dan_Jeffries1 · x · 2026-07-18

The cost of training frontier models is skyrocketing. Cited estimates suggest that a "hero run" training a 5T-A100B model on 50T tokens using GB300 hardware costs around **$10 million**, doubling if RL is included. Consequently, only a few thousand companies globally can afford such investments. Meanwhile, the author believes Chinese companies are demonstrating an "expensive but worthwhile" approach, with even non-tech enterprises pursuing localized AI deployments. Reasons include retaining control over data, easier fine-tuning, and the growing consensus that AI is practical engineering rather than sci-fi, ensuring its continued expansion across industries.

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