EpochAI: Codex Engineer Productivity on the Rise

SamuelAlbanie · x · 2026-07-19

This EpochAI study estimates the productivity boost among Codex engineers. The methodology involves using an LLM to reverse-engineer how long a merged PR would take an engineer without AI assistance.

They found that in Q2 2026, 8% of contributor-days are estimated to equate to over 24 hours of manual work, a notable increase from 2% a year ago. The author cautions that this method still makes strict causal attribution difficult.

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