HBM Expansion Throttled by Packaging Bottlenecks
tengyanAI · x · 2026-07-19
- This post discusses the **physical bottlenecks in HBM memory expansion**: even if customers diversify from SK hynix to Samsung and Micron, it merely spreads the same substrate constraint across more buyers without genuinely alleviating the pressure. - The post also notes that **ISC test sockets** are a critical chokepoint in HBM stacked DRAM certification; every additional wafer start at the three foundries consumes more sockets. - Because the substrate capacity expansion cycle takes roughly **24 个月**, the supply curve is highly inelastic. Thus, while the HBM premium has dropped from its peak, it hasn't completely "collapsed."
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