HBM Expansion Throttled by Packaging Bottlenecks

tengyanAI · x · 2026-07-19

• This post discusses the physical bottlenecks in HBM memory expansion: even if customers diversify from SK hynix to Samsung and Micron, it merely spreads the same substrate constraint across more buyers without genuinely alleviating the pressure.
• The post also notes that ISC test sockets are a critical chokepoint in HBM stacked DRAM certification; every additional wafer start at the three foundries consumes more sockets.
• Because the substrate capacity expansion cycle takes roughly 24 个月, the supply curve is highly inelastic. Thus, while the HBM premium has dropped from its peak, it hasn't completely "collapsed."

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