Estimating the Potential Size of the US Compute Futures Market
LexSokolin · x · 2026-07-17
By comparing the ratio of annual derivatives trading volume to annual production across various commodities, we can estimate the potential size of the US compute futures market.
Reference ratios show US electricity at about 2.5, crude oil at 26, and gold at a massive 86014. As an emerging commodity, the derivative market activity for compute power is expected to fall somewhere between electricity and traditional energy sources.
More from Venture
- Fireworks captures ~35k monthly clicks with model-name SEO, 9 pages for one Kimi K3 — FinanceYF5 · 2026-10-26
- Anthropic's $80.7B H1 loss is almost all non-cash fair-value swings — adjusted net income is positive — BenBajarin · 2026-10-26
- DeepSeek reportedly raised ~$15B in one of China's largest funding rounds ever — thione · 2026-10-26
- Meta approves nonvoting Class C shares as 2026 capex guidance hits $135B–$145B — thione · 2026-10-26
- Half the Fortune 500 Are Anthropic Customers Yet Spend Under 0.1% of Their Expenses — BenBajarin · 2026-10-26
- Organic Search Fell 13.2% in US and 24.4% in France Over Two Years, But It's Not All AI — VeryWellVersed · 2026-10-26