Equipment Stocks Re-sync with TSMC CapEx
zephyr_z9 · x · 2026-07-17
Cited research indicates that the revenue of the top five semiconductor equipment companies (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, TEL, KLA) typically correlates highly with TSMC's capital expenditure.
- This relationship decoupled during 2023–2024, largely attributed to China-related factors.
- By 2025, the two have re-synced to hit new highs, with the CapEx curve climbing even faster since mid-2025.
- This gap implies that once TSMC's $60–64B CapEx plan shifts from "shell construction" to "equipment move-in," logic tool revenue will likely accelerate significantly in the second half of 2026.
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