How Far Are LLMs From the Human Brain
scaling01 · x · 2026-07-14
The discussion points out that currently **publicly available or widely deployed** models have yet to reach the 10T parameter scale. The author estimates that even Fable is highly likely under **4T parameters** (though it might be distilled from a 10T model), while most others remain under **2T**. The conversation then shifts to a comparison with the human brain: the neocortex has roughly **164 trillion synapses**, and the entire brain (especially in toddlers) could be much higher, though these estimates are highly uncertain. Using these numbers, the author speculates that LLMs still have about **1.5 to 2.5 orders of magnitude** of scaling room. If measured from the roughly 4T Fable, the so-called 10T Mythos might only represent another **1 to 2 orders of magnitude** leap.
Related event: Current LLMs Still Far from Human Brain Scale(2 posts)→
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