Extrapolating AI Capabilities Doubling Every 40 Days
basedjensen · x · 2026-07-14
A repost quotes an extrapolation on the growth rate of model capabilities: based on METR's rough estimate of an "80% reliable task completion rate," capabilities are doubling approximately every 40 days.
The author argues this represents a very rapid "takeoff" speed and further extrapolates that if this trend continues, by 2032, a single model could complete an amount of work equivalent to the combined output of every human who has ever lived on Earth.
More from AGI Musings
- Future leaders need systems thinking, not just coding or AI literacy — AryHHAry · 2026-07-21
- OpenAI-style autonomous researchers could become real scientific collaborators — Promptmethus · 2026-07-21
- Closed frontier models may end up restricting APIs entirely, one researcher argues — xeophon · 2026-07-21
- Aging won’t be solved with $1 billion, says AI observer; hundreds of billions may be needed — DeryaTR_ · 2026-07-21
- Jeff Dean’s vision: build one huge system, then extract task-specific parts — JoshuaJBouw · 2026-07-21
- Agents are useful now, but local frontier inference is still too expensive — MannyKayy · 2026-07-21