Extrapolating AI Capabilities Doubling Every 40 Days
basedjensen · x · 2026-07-14
A repost quotes an extrapolation on the growth rate of model capabilities: based on METR's rough estimate of an "80% reliable task completion rate," capabilities are doubling approximately every 40 days.
The author argues this represents a very rapid "takeoff" speed and further extrapolates that if this trend continues, by 2032, a single model could complete an amount of work equivalent to the combined output of every human who has ever lived on Earth.
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