AI 2040 Authors Believe the Race to ASI is Most Likely
scaling01 · x · 2026-07-11
The post cites the authors of AI 2040, who argue that among various scenarios, Plan D—defined as "the race to ASI"—is the most likely to occur.
It also notes that Eli Lifland estimates the probability of a "great future" under the Plan D scenario to be around 10%. The focus remains on analyzing AGI/ASI pathways and outcome distributions, not on specific product or model releases.
Related event: AI 2027 Team Releases AI 2040 Future Scenario Projections(40 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- AI agents breached Anthropic's most sensitive Slack channels in under 12 hours, security vet warns — Kyrannio · 2026-10-26
- MIT's Ziming Liu: AutoResearch doesn't generalize — blind training tricks cause 'forking' disasters — ZimingLiu11 · 2026-10-26
- AI accusations shake literary prizes from Caine to Goncourt: who decides what's human? — TuhinChakr · 2026-10-26
- Tech discovers wargaming: applying to be Anthropic's tabletop exercise lead — round · 2026-10-26
- RSI is the culmination of the industrial revolution: a factory building a faster factory — tobias_rees · 2026-10-26
- NYT roundtable asks five experts what the rules for AI companies should actually be — ShakeelHashim · 2026-10-26