Questioning Linear Extrapolation of LLM Parameters
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-07-10
The author expresses skepticism towards linear extrapolations like "31Q total parameters and 243T active parameters," arguing that such scales might never materialize. They also suggest that parametric knowledge may not necessarily be the primary vessel for "Godmind" preferences.
This response challenges an AI 2040 scenario discussion, fundamentally questioning the reliability of using parameter scales to linearly predict the capabilities of future intelligent systems.
Related event: Superintelligence Predictions Spark Cognitive Divide(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Adam Marblestone's Podcast Reading List: Evolution of Intelligence to Digital Minds — KordingLab · 2026-09-11
- Superintelligence will be maximum good, not stupid or evil, argues Patterson — davidpattersonx · 2026-09-11
- Mathematician Daniel Litt Launches Problem Repo to Track Human vs AI Progress: 15 Problems, 1 Solved — littmath · 2026-09-11
- Should AI models be taught morality? Breakout incidents expose missing ethical training — Pfungus_ · 2026-09-11
- SoftBank's Masayoshi Son predicts 100 trillion self-replicating AIs: "humans' era as top life form is ending" — Puzzleheaded-King584 · 2026-09-11
- We are witnessing the unreasonable effectiveness of inference-time scaling — sqcai · 2026-09-11