AI 2040 Scenario Shifts to a Cooling Narrative
thlarsen · x · 2026-07-10
The post discusses an update to the AI 2040 scenario, describing it as a step further compared to the "doomsday/triumph" narrative of AI 2027. The default scenario envisions the US and China reaching an awkward but viable cooling agreement. This serves as a macro-level forecast regarding AGI development paths and international power dynamics.
Related event: AI 2027 Team Releases AI 2040 Future Scenario Projections(40 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Bindu Reddy says the industry still lacks a way to train 20T models and scale post-training RL — bindureddy · 2026-07-22
- Advanced AI Models Are Becoming Impossible to Plug and Play — emollick · 2026-07-22
- The Thimble and the Waterfall: AI's Data Bottleneck and Feedback Loops — dyamins · 2026-07-22
- Researcher Admits Kurzweil Was Right About AI Scaling Laws All Along — davidmanheim · 2026-07-22
- AI is still not at a maturity plateau, the author argues — generativist · 2026-07-22
- Essay argues LLMs are externalized metacognition, not standalone intelligence — lnsip9reg · 2026-07-22