My AGI Timeline Model Has Failed
Weekly-Suspect-1432 · reddit · 2026-07-09
The author says their previous AGI timeline—where OpenAI leads, Anthropic follows, Google occasionally launches, and Chinese labs are a year behind—has fallen apart this year. The reason is that products/models like Codex, GLM-5.2, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Kimi are rapidly closing the gap to the frontier, making them question whether compute is still the only or most important moat.
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