Average 24.8 Months for Top Cloud Models to Run Locally
FinanceYF5 · x · 2026-07-07
According to a chart on r/LocalLLaMA, a netizen estimated that the average time from release of a top cloud model until it can run at equivalent capability on an ordinary laptop is about 24.8 months—GPT-3 took 37 months, GPT-3.5 took 17 months, GPT-4 about 24 months. At this pace, Fable/Mythos 5-level capability might fit into a high-end consumer computer around July 2028.
Related event: Frontier AI Typically Takes About 25 Months to Reach Local Laptops(3 posts)→
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