Economists Find No Evidence of Intelligence Explosion as Progress Relies on Compute

Economists Luis Garicano and Alex Imas built a quantitative framework suggesting no evidence of an intelligence explosion: doubling capability required roughly 6x R&D spending, implying progress still comes from scaling resources rather than self-accelerating algorithms.

2026-11-13 ~ 2026-11-14 · 2 related posts

• Economists crunch METR data: no convincing evidence of an intelligence explosion yet — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-11-13
• Economists model the intelligence explosion question: 6x R&D growth bought only 2x capability gains — sudoraohacker · 2026-11-14