Greenblatt Corrects AI Progress Estimates: 2.5x Software Speedup Could Yield ~4x Overall Gains

Alignment researcher Ryan Greenblatt corrected his earlier estimate of AI progress sources, finding that a 2.5x speedup in software progress could yield roughly a 3.8x acceleration in overall AI progress, about twice his previous figure.

2026-11-06 ~ 2026-11-06 · 2 related posts

• Ryan Greenblatt corrects AI progress math: software progress needs 2.5x, not 3x, for 2x overall speedup — RyanGreenblatt · 2026-11-06

1 near-duplicate retellings: RyanGreenblatt