Mantic Predicts Open-Weight Models Will Reach Frontier Offensive Cyber Capabilities in ~9 Months

Mantic forecasts that open-weight models will reach Astra-level offensive cyber capabilities within roughly nine months, based on success rates on ExploitGym's 869 fixed exploit-development tasks, and also reviews a 48-hour incident dubbed 'Black October'.

2026-10-28 ~ 2026-10-28 · 2 related posts

• Mantic forecasts open-weight models 9 months behind frontier in offensive cyber capability — tshevl · 2026-10-28
• Mantic Forecasts Open-Weight Models Reach Astra-Level Offensive Cyber in 9 Months After 'Black October' — tshevl · 2026-10-28