METR data sparks debate: naive AI extrapolation works—sometimes

Discussion highlights that naive extrapolation works for some AI capability dimensions but fails for others, with METR data illustrating the gap. DeepMind's Samuel Albanie cites Ajeya Cotra's essay arguing that AI risk disagreements fundamentally stem from differing takeoff speed assumptions.

2026-10-21 ~ 2026-10-22 · 2 related posts

• Naive extrapolation nails AI task horizons but blows up on cyber vulnerabilities — maksym_andr · 2026-10-21
• Takeoff speeds, not AGI timelines, drive the real disagreement on AI risk — SamuelAlbanie · 2026-10-22