LLM Evaluation Is a Forecasting Problem, New Research Argues

A new arXiv paper argues LLM evaluation should be treated as a forecasting problem: benchmark scores decay over time, making fresh data more valuable and old-benchmark-based model selection unreliable.

2026-10-15 ~ 2026-10-15 · 2 related posts

• Benchmark scores decay: treating LLM evals as forecasting shows time drift hurts deployment — micahgoldblum · 2026-10-15
• LLM Evaluation Is a Forecasting Problem: Stale Benchmark Scores Pick the Wrong Model — micahgoldblum · 2026-10-15