Forecasters Estimate 10x Yearly Algorithmic Progress

AI Futures Project forecaster Eli Lifland estimates algorithmic progress at roughly 10x per year, and argues only restricting production of training-capable chips can meaningfully slow it. Paper author wfithian pointed to Section 6.3 in response to Tom Davidson's doubts.

2026-10-11 ~ 2026-10-11 · 3 related posts

• Pause-paper author points to Section 6.3 for the algorithmic-progress rebuttal — wfithian · 2026-10-11
• Eli Lifland: historical algorithmic progress runs ~10x/year, compute cuts would slow it — eli_lifland · 2026-10-11
• Lifland: slowing training-capable chip production is the real lever on AI experiments — eli_lifland · 2026-10-11