Musk Claims AI Will Surpass Humans in All Domains by 2028
On September 23, Elon Musk replied to Keras creator François Chollet's five-year-old AI capability forecast, calling it too conservative: AI will surpass humans in every domain— not just coding and math—by the end of 2027, at the latest by the end of 2028.
Confirmed
- Musk explicitly gave the timeline "before end of next year, at latest end of 2028" and framed it as covering every domain, not only programming and mathematics.
- Chollet the same day reposted his own tweet from over five years ago: within 10–20 years, nearly all branches of science will effectively become branches of computer science (e.g., computational physics, computational chemistry). He said the prediction faced huge backlash at the time but is becoming "more obvious by the day."
Why it matters
- The timeline is far earlier than most research institutions' AGI estimates, in keeping with Musk's typically bold style, and is expected to spark another round of debate over AGI timelines. Sharers like @DimaZeniuk and @markk noted that if the prediction holds, the next two years will be extremely turbulent.
- Sharer @acmoytoy went further, proclaiming "the next era is one where everyone can live happily without working"—an optimistic interpretation, but the sharer's personal view rather than Musk's own words.
2026-09-23 ~ 2026-09-23 · 5 related posts
Primary sources
- [source] Chollet resurfaces 5-year-old mocked prediction: every branch of science becomes computer science — fchollet · 2026-09-23
- [source] Musk: AI will surpass humans in every field by 2028, calling Chollet's prediction conservative — elonmusk · 2026-09-23
- Musk Predicts AI Will Beat Humans in All Fields by Next Year, 2028 at the Latest — DimaZeniuk · 2026-09-23