Ben Todd Reviews His AGI-by-2030 Forecast: Mostly on Track but Slower

Ben Todd of 80,000 Hours reviewed his March 2025 essay 'Will we have AGI by 2030?', concluding that his prediction largely holds—with its four drivers of progress validated—though progress has been somewhat slower than expected. He shared the original article and an updated timeline.

2026-09-22 ~ 2026-09-22 · 2 related posts

• Ben Todd scores his AGI-by-2030 forecasts: mostly right, but slower than expected — ben_j_todd · 2026-09-22
• 80,000 Hours' "Will we have AGI by 2030?": the original essay behind the retro — ben_j_todd · 2026-09-22