Catastrophe Modeler Draws Tsunami Lessons for AI Risk

Catastrophe risk modeler David Manheim used tsunami risk as an analogy for AI risk, arguing that doomsday date predictions are uninformative and that tracking leading indicators of capability progress and alignment failure is the sounder approach—evidence he says recently favors AI safety advocates.

2026-09-16 ~ 2026-09-16 · 2 related posts

• You don't predict a tsunami by counting drownings: AI safety needs leading indicators — davidmanheim · 2026-09-16
• Catastrophe risk modeler: Tohoku tsunami shows historical data misleads on AI risk — davidmanheim · 2026-09-16