Debate Erupts Over Whether Superforecasters Need Explicit Models
A debate between David Manheim and Sam Kuyp over superforecasting methodology: Kuyp argues that accurate predictions must rest on explicit models, and probabilities derived without one should not be trusted.
2026-09-11 ~ 2026-09-11 · 2 related posts
- Great Forecasters Aren't Magic: Bare Probabilities Need Model-Based Derivation — Sam_kuyp · 2026-09-11
- Superforecasters vs. explanation: debate over whether predictions need models — Sam_kuyp · 2026-09-11