Researcher Claims 95% Confidence Intervals Cover Only 10-25% in Practice

Rex Douglass argued on X that nominal 95% confidence intervals often achieve only 10-25% actual coverage of population estimates, echoing Robin Hanson's observation about low real-world reproducibility of p=0.05 findings.

2026-09-11 ~ 2026-09-11 · 2 related posts

• 95% Confidence Intervals Really Cover Only 10-25% of the Time, Statistician Notes — RexDouglass · 2026-09-11
• Researcher: 95% confidence intervals may really cover just 10-25% of the truth — RexDouglass · 2026-09-11