Debate flares over the value of p(doom) estimates

Researchers debate the value of p(doom) estimates: one side argues aggregate crowd probabilities are meaningful signals across scenarios, while the other contends doom doesn't require RSI and quantitative evidence shouldn't be forced.

2026-09-10 ~ 2026-09-10 · 2 related posts

• Why a probabilistic p(doom)=10% is meaningful even without shared definitions — anpaure · 2026-09-10
• On p(doom): why RSI isn't required and quantitative evidence isn't the point — anpaure · 2026-09-10